With the run finally settled it’s time to do a deep dive into our salmon survey data from this year
Yearly Totals
| Yearly Chum Total | Chum Calc Date | Yearly Coho Total | Coho Calc Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3033 | 2024-12-03 | 97 | 2024-12-03 |
Our total Chum this year was 311% of our previous record high in 2022 (975). While this sounds unbelievable we counted over 3000 Chum carcasses this year. This was challenging for the survey as several times we were unable to process all carcasses before the end of the day. Some sections of stream had over 100 live fish in one small area. Our highest live count this year (1545) was coincidentally also 311% of our previous record high back in 2021 (497).
Why did we have so many fish return this year? Did other runs perform as well?
According to the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) this year’s Puget Sound fall Chum run was projected to be 818,793, an increase of 26% over last year’s projection of 650,618.
A collaboration between the Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission (NWIFC) and WDFW gives an estimation of Chum salmon Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE), a measure of species abundance, in the south sound. This year’s peak CPUE at the Apple Cove Point Test Fishery was 8211, 442% of the 10 year average for that same week and 444% of the peak from 2023. WDFW reported similar numbers from their Vashon Island test fisheries. Both of these test fisheries and Carkeek Park belong to Marine Area 10.
test-fisheries-week44-websiteWhile no major changes were made to Washington State’s Area 10 Chum management plan in 2024, 99% of commercial Chum is caught in Alaska. Preliminary numbers for the 2024 Alaskan salmon fishing season show the estimated number of Chum salmon harvested dropped 27% from 2023 to 2024. The average price per pound also dropped 20%. Because salmon will migrate to Alaskan waters in search of food the reduced Alaskan harvest may have boosted the numbers that returned home to spawn.
Now back to Carkeek Data…
Totals By Day
| Survey Date | Live Chum | Dead Chum | Live Coho | Dead Coho |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-19 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 2024-10-22 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 2024-10-29 | 30 | 27 | 1 | 10 |
| 2024-11-02 | 251 | 14 | 4 | 15 |
| 2024-11-05 | 510 | 51 | 3 | 16 |
| 2024-11-09 | 661 | 101 | 2 | 7 |
| 2024-11-12 | 1545 | 236 | 1 | 4 |
| 2024-11-16 | 1045 | 294 | 7 | 13 |
| 2024-11-19 | 1055 | 364 | 9 | 4 |
| 2024-11-23 | 545 | 263 | 9 | 7 |
| 2024-11-26 | 205 | 505 | 2 | 4 |
| 2024-11-30 | 80 | 528 | 0 | 6 |
| 2024-12-03 | 14 | 635 | 0 | 9 |
Individual surveys had unusually high numbers of Chum salmon this year with 6 surveys exceeding our previous all time record of live fish (497) and 5 surveys exceeding our previous all time record of carcasses (290). This was taxing on our survey crew with many surveys going for 6 hours or more. Thanks again survey crews for going the extra mile this year.
The 2024 salmon run peak numbers are far beyond any previous year’s surveys. There were so many carcasses in the last two surveys we didn’t have time to take all of our measurements. As usual just a small fraction of the returning salmon were Coho.
While the peak numbers were historic the live fish dropped off faster than some other surveys like 2022. Just a handful of live salmon remained in the 12/3 survey.
These scatter plots are interactive. Locations are approximate and based on where the data recorder is standing. Not all entries will have location set
Salmon had no problem bypassing the multitude of beaver dams this year likely due to the heavy rains as well as the notch exclusion fencing set up in partnership between CWCAP, Seattle Parks and Rec, and Beavers NW. Visitors were spotting salmon well up Venema Creek early on in the season. Compare that to the 2023 scatter map below where almost all data points were in the early stretches of Piper’s Creek.
One question that comes up frequently is “Do males and females appear at different times?”. The thought here is perhaps the females arrive first and locate good areas for making a redd. If we take a look at our carcass data there doesn’t seem to be any sort of pattern here.
Click to see carcass sex ratio data
Sex Ratios
| Survey_Date | Dead Chum Female | Dead Chum Male | Ratio Female | Ratio Male |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-22 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| 2024-10-29 | 15 | 12 | 55.6 | 44.4 |
| 2024-11-02 | 3 | 11 | 21.4 | 78.6 |
| 2024-11-05 | 29 | 21 | 58.0 | 42.0 |
| 2024-11-09 | 32 | 67 | 32.3 | 67.7 |
| 2024-11-12 | 123 | 109 | 53.0 | 47.0 |
| 2024-11-16 | 133 | 151 | 46.8 | 53.2 |
| 2024-11-19 | 193 | 169 | 53.3 | 46.7 |
| 2024-11-23 | 104 | 158 | 39.7 | 60.3 |
| 2024-11-26 | 258 | 244 | 51.4 | 48.6 |
| 2024-11-30 | 148 | 177 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| 2024-12-03 | 364 | 270 | 57.4 | 42.6 |
| Total | 1402 | 1390 | 50.2 | 49.8 |
| Survey_Date | Dead Coho Female | Dead Coho Male | Ratio Female | Ratio Male |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-22 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 2024-10-29 | 3 | 5 | 37.5 | 62.5 |
| 2024-11-02 | 8 | 7 | 53.3 | 46.7 |
| 2024-11-05 | 12 | 3 | 80.0 | 20.0 |
| 2024-11-09 | 5 | 2 | 71.4 | 28.6 |
| 2024-11-12 | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 2024-11-16 | 8 | 3 | 72.7 | 27.3 |
| 2024-11-19 | 4 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024-11-23 | 5 | 2 | 71.4 | 28.6 |
| 2024-11-26 | 2 | 2 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 2024-11-30 | 1 | 5 | 16.7 | 83.3 |
| 2024-12-03 | 2 | 7 | 22.2 | 77.8 |
| Total | 53 | 39 | 57.6 | 42.4 |
| Survey_Date | Dead Chum Female | Dead Chum Male | Ratio Female | Ratio Male |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-28 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
| 2023-10-31 | 1 | 2 | 33.3 | 66.7 |
| 2023-11-04 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| 2023-11-07 | 7 | 13 | 35.0 | 65.0 |
| 2023-11-11 | 10 | 10 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 2023-11-14 | 20 | 29 | 40.8 | 59.2 |
| 2023-11-18 | 15 | 18 | 45.5 | 54.5 |
| 2023-11-21 | 19 | 37 | 33.9 | 66.1 |
| 2023-11-25 | 28 | 33 | 45.9 | 54.1 |
| 2023-11-28 | 20 | 20 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 2023-12-02 | 12 | 4 | 75.0 | 25.0 |
| 2023-12-09 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| Total | 134 | 168 | 44.4 | 55.6 |
| Survey_Date | Dead Chum Female | Dead Chum Male | Ratio Female | Ratio Male |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-01 | 3 | 3 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 2022-11-05 | 6 | 5 | 54.5 | 45.5 |
| 2022-11-08 | 4 | 11 | 26.7 | 73.3 |
| 2022-11-12 | 8 | 11 | 42.1 | 57.9 |
| 2022-11-15 | 15 | 35 | 30.0 | 70.0 |
| 2022-11-19 | 93 | 63 | 59.6 | 40.4 |
| 2022-11-22 | 25 | 16 | 61.0 | 39.0 |
| 2022-11-26 | 147 | 110 | 57.2 | 42.8 |
| 2022-11-29 | 126 | 71 | 64.0 | 36.0 |
| 2022-12-03 | 53 | 60 | 46.9 | 53.1 |
| 2022-12-06 | 36 | 30 | 54.5 | 45.5 |
| 2022-12-10 | 18 | 10 | 64.3 | 35.7 |
| Total | 534 | 425 | 55.7 | 44.3 |
Well what about the live fish? While our live data could indicate the males are actually arriving earlier we should be careful drawing conclusions. The determination of sex from a live fish is less reliable than from a carcass and it could be that one sex is easier to identify than the other.
Click to see live salmon sex ratio data
| Survey_Date | Live Chum Female | Live Chum Male | Ratio Female | Ratio Male |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-22 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | 0.0 |
| 2024-10-29 | 10 | 19 | 34.5 | 65.5 |
| 2024-11-02 | 113 | 114 | 49.8 | 50.2 |
| 2024-11-05 | 250 | 225 | 52.6 | 47.4 |
| 2024-11-09 | 275 | 359 | 43.4 | 56.6 |
| 2024-11-12 | 644 | 718 | 47.3 | 52.7 |
| 2024-11-16 | 541 | 447 | 54.8 | 45.2 |
| 2024-11-19 | 586 | 351 | 62.5 | 37.5 |
| 2024-11-23 | 298 | 231 | 56.3 | 43.7 |
| 2024-11-26 | 81 | 49 | 62.3 | 37.7 |
| 2024-11-30 | 37 | 29 | 56.1 | 43.9 |
| 2024-12-03 | 6 | 3 | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| Total | 2842 | 2545 | 52.8 | 47.2 |
| Survey_Date | Live Chum Female | Live Chum Male | Ratio Female | Ratio Male |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-28 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| 2023-10-31 | 6 | 2 | 75.0 | 25.0 |
| 2023-11-04 | 4 | 4 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 2023-11-07 | 72 | 54 | 57.1 | 42.9 |
| 2023-11-11 | 26 | 26 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 2023-11-14 | 62 | 42 | 59.6 | 40.4 |
| 2023-11-18 | 55 | 62 | 47.0 | 53.0 |
| 2023-11-21 | 46 | 35 | 56.8 | 43.2 |
| 2023-11-25 | 35 | 9 | 79.5 | 20.5 |
| 2023-11-28 | 12 | 4 | 75.0 | 25.0 |
| 2023-12-02 | 3 | 1 | 75.0 | 25.0 |
| Total | 323 | 240 | 57.4 | 42.6 |
| Survey_Date | Live Chum Female | Live Chum Male | Ratio Female | Ratio Male |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-26 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 2022-11-01 | 27 | 21 | 56.2 | 43.8 |
| 2022-11-05 | 76 | 87 | 46.6 | 53.4 |
| 2022-11-08 | 144 | 132 | 52.2 | 47.8 |
| 2022-11-12 | 180 | 157 | 53.4 | 46.6 |
| 2022-11-15 | 288 | 162 | 64.0 | 36.0 |
| 2022-11-19 | 208 | 189 | 52.4 | 47.6 |
| 2022-11-22 | 74 | 86 | 46.2 | 53.8 |
| 2022-11-26 | 153 | 145 | 51.3 | 48.7 |
| 2022-11-29 | 125 | 56 | 69.1 | 30.9 |
| 2022-12-03 | 31 | 15 | 67.4 | 32.6 |
| 2022-12-06 | 12 | 5 | 70.6 | 29.4 |
| Total | 1319 | 1056 | 55.5 | 44.5 |
Chum spawning success (defined here as Spawned + Partially Spawned) was slightly higher than 2023 (62% vs 57%) but is down from prior years like 2022 (82.4%) and 2021 (91.7%). Last year’s numbers were likely lower because of salmon being unable to reach spawning areas due to beaver dams. It could be that spawning success is down this year because the massive number of returning fish led to increased competition for limited spawning areas. This drop could also be due to what we perceive has been increased siltation of the creeks resulting in a loss of ideal spawning locations. We’ll continue to closely monitor Chum spawning success and hopefully it will improve in the next few years.
As usual the Coho have a difficult time spawning in Carkeek Park. This is likely due to few spawning partners as well as their susceptibility to 6PPD-quinone poisoning from stormwater runoff.
Predators continue to prefer Coho salmon over Chum salmon. Might as well ring the dinner bell for them with a high percentage of Coho salmon dying early and full of eggs.
Thanks again to survey volunteers for gathering this data. We hope it will be a useful tool for improving salmon habitat and for education for years to come.